Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
This safe withdrawal rate calculator simulates whether your chosen withdrawal rate lets your retirement portfolio last as long as you need — accounting for investment growth and inflation-adjusted spending, year by year. Enter your numbers to see if your plan holds up.
Your total investable assets at the start of retirement.
The percentage of your starting portfolio you withdraw in year one — later years adjust this amount for inflation.
A long-run average for your portfolio's growth.
Used to increase your withdrawal amount each year, keeping your spending power constant.
How many years you need the portfolio to last.
Years the portfolio lasts
30
Capped at your target retirement length — if this equals your target, the portfolio survives the full period in this scenario.
How to use this safe withdrawal rate calculator
- 1Starting portfolio value and withdrawal rate: your total retirement assets and the percentage you plan to withdraw in year one.
- 2Expected return and inflation: long-run averages — the calculator increases your withdrawal amount each year by the inflation rate, matching how real retirees maintain their spending power.
- 3Retirement length: how many years you need the money to last — 30 years is the classic assumption, but FIRE retirees planning to retire decades early often need 40-50+.
Understanding your results
Years the portfolio lasts shows whether your plan survives — if it equals your target retirement length, the portfolio makes it through (in this specific return/inflation scenario); if it's shorter, the money runs out early. Ending balance shows what's left if the plan succeeds, useful for seeing whether you're being overly conservative and could safely spend more.
The formula
Each year: Balance = Balance × (1 + Return) − Withdrawal, then Withdrawal grows with inflationThis simulates one specific sequence of constant annual returns — the balance grows by your expected return, then shrinks by that year's withdrawal, while the withdrawal itself grows each year to keep pace with inflation. Real markets don't return the same rate every year, so this is a simplified model, not a guarantee — see the FAQ on sequence-of-returns risk.
A worked example
A $1,250,000 portfolio withdrawing 4% ($50,000) in year one, with a 6% expected return and 3% inflation, over a 30-year retirement: the portfolio survives the full 30 years in this constant-return scenario, ending with a meaningful balance remaining — since the 6% return consistently outpaces the roughly 3% net drawdown rate (4% withdrawal growing at 3% vs. 6% growth).
Notes for the UK, US and India
This model assumes a constant annual return every year, which real markets never actually deliver — a portfolio that experiences poor returns in its first few retirement years (a bad 'sequence of returns') can fail even if its long-run average return matches this calculator's assumption. Use this as a directional check, and consider stress-testing your plan with a lower assumed return or historical worst-case sequences for a more conservative view.
Frequently asked questions
Why might my real portfolio fail even if this calculator says it survives?+
This calculator uses one constant average return every year. Real portfolios experience volatility, and a few bad years early in retirement (a 'sequence of returns' risk) can deplete a portfolio faster than a smooth average return would suggest — this is one of the biggest risks in retirement planning.
Is 4% always the right withdrawal rate?+
It's a well-known historical benchmark, not a universal rule. Longer retirements (common in FIRE planning), lower expected future returns, or a desire for extra safety margin often push people toward a lower rate like 3-3.5%.
Should I reduce withdrawals in a market downturn?+
Many retirees do use 'flexible' withdrawal strategies (spending less after a bad year) rather than a fixed inflation-adjusted amount — this calculator models the simpler fixed approach, so a flexible strategy would likely outperform what's shown here in bad-return scenarios.